Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 30 Jun 2007 06:00 to Sun 01 Jul 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 29 Jun 2007 14:31
Forecaster: DAHL
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DISCUSSION
... France ... Benelux ...
It appears that at least weak CAPE will develop over France in the warm-sector air mass during the early evening hours. Weak DCVA-related ascent is expected over France, and at least scattered thunderstorms should form in the early evening. Given 20 m/s 0-6 km shear, some threat for well-organized multicells and also some supercells exists, with an attendant threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. GFS 06Z advertises a small overlap of 7 m/s LLS with the region where convective precip is forecasted, so that the chance of a tornado or two is also increased in the evening hours. CAPE should remain quite weak due to stratiform cloudiness/precip over the area early in the day, so that allover severe weather threat may be somewhat limited. Late in the evening/night however, convection may develop into increasingly unstable air towards the south, so that the severe weather threat will be maintained through, or even increase during the night.
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