... France ... Benelux ... N Germany ... N Poland ...
Additional, pre-frontal storms will likely develop across France, the Benelux countries as well as N Germany in the afternoon hours. This activity is expected to develop at the E/S periphery of the upper jet, so that the deep-layer shear will vary accordingly over the region of interest, ranging from about 15 m/s to 30 m/s. LLS will increase over N France, Benelux, as well as over W and N Germany during the day. The main issue will be whether or not storms will initiate, due mainly to strong capping/insufficient mesoscale ascent. Thinking is that allover coverage will remain rather low. Also, this activity may fail to become well organized given a lack of strong mesoscale ascent. However, intense shear profiles should aid some of the storms in becoming severe, main threats being large hail and severe wind gusts. However, increasing LLS over N France, Benelux, as well as over W and N Germany and N Poland suggests that a few tornadoes are also possible.
... western France ... Benelux, late Sunday evening/night ...
More widespread activity may occur towards late Sunday evening/night along the cold front over western France. Upscale growth into an MCS may occur, which appears to develop into increasingly weaker sheared air as it moves northeastwards, so that its degree of organization should decrease after about midnight. Still, 10 m/s LLS will likely exist in its path, and isolated surface based cells will have some potential of producing a tornado. Otherwise, marginally severe hail and win gusts should still be possible.
Additional, pre-frontal storms will likely develop across France, the Benelux countries as well as N Germany in the afternoon hours. This activity is expected to develop at the E/S periphery of the upper jet, so that the deep-layer shear will vary accordingly over the region of interest, ranging from about 15 m/s to 30 m/s. LLS will increase over N France, Benelux, as well as over W and N Germany during the day. The main issue will be whether or not storms will initiate, due mainly to strong capping/insufficient mesoscale ascent. Thinking is that allover coverage will remain rather low. Also, this activity may fail to become well organized given a lack of strong mesoscale ascent. However, intense shear profiles should aid some of the storms in becoming severe, main threats being large hail and severe wind gusts. However, increasing LLS over N France, Benelux, as well as over W and N Germany and N Poland suggests that a few tornadoes are also possible.
... western France ... Benelux, late Sunday evening/night ...
More widespread activity may occur towards late Sunday evening/night along the cold front over western France. Upscale growth into an MCS may occur, which appears to develop into increasingly weaker sheared air as it moves northeastwards, so that its degree of organization should decrease after about midnight. Still, 10 m/s LLS will likely exist in its path, and isolated surface based cells will have some potential of producing a tornado. Otherwise, marginally severe hail and win gusts should still be possible.