Two shortwave troughs are expected to affect the frontal zone over western France and the North Sea region. The first one is expected over the southern UK and Belgium Monday at 06Z. Ahead of the system an MCS is likely ongoing over the Benelux, the southern North Sea and possibly SE England. Strong wind gusts are possible with this system.
The system should move out onto the North Sea during the morning leaving a coast-parallel baroclinic zone in its wake, between cool moist air in the west, and hot, dry air in the east.
Dit hebben we net gehad. Is behoorlijk goed uitgekomen, naar mijn mening.
A second trough is expected to move into southwestern France around noon local time.
The approach of the system should cause upward motion steepening the lapse rates on top of the moist air thereby creating a poorly-capped 1000 J/kg MLCAPE over W-France, Belgium and later the Netherlands. Widespread renewed storm initiation is expected over western France during the afternoon and later over the western Benelux as well.
Given that deep-layer shear on the order of 30 m/s is expected, the storms will likely include supercells with a threat of large hail in addition to severe straight-line gusts.
As the low-level wind field strengthens over the Benelux during the evening hours a few tornadoes may form as well.
Deze ontwikkeling is op dit moment gaande. Vanavond kunnen we meer verwachten. Grote kans op supercells vandaag.
Bron: ESTOFEX
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