NE France, E Benelux, NWrn half of Germany...
Models tend to agree that rather widespread convection will form in response to the vorticity maximum in the left exit of the aforementioned jet. At daybreak, some storm systems will however already be ongoing, most likely over central and N France as well as central Germany. Over NE France, W-central Germany and the SE Benelux solar heating and upward vertical motion should be capable of creating about 1000 to possibly up to 1500 J/kg (50hPa-)MLCAPE. Rather widespread storms should form as a result. The amount of insolation and instability being dependent of course on the prior evolution of convective storms. The most likely convective mode is linear convective systems and locally supercells capable of producing some hail and strong winds. It is possible that one or more rather well-organized lines produce isolated severe winds while moving northeastward during the morning.
Especially with supercells, tornadoes will be possible as well. The reasoning is that a narrow band of strong helicity and low level shear > 10 m/s should develop just ahead and to the east of the surface low expected to track northward near the Benelux/German borders according to a consensus of GFS/AFWA-MM5 model runs. However, because of the strong forcing, convective lines will likely dominate over isolated supercells which lowering the overall tornado threat. At the moment, the overall threat appears just to fall short of the level 2 criterion that requires either widespread severe or isolated extremely severe events to occur. An update and/or upgrade may however well be given for certain parts of the forecast area.
Models tend to agree that rather widespread convection will form in response to the vorticity maximum in the left exit of the aforementioned jet. At daybreak, some storm systems will however already be ongoing, most likely over central and N France as well as central Germany. Over NE France, W-central Germany and the SE Benelux solar heating and upward vertical motion should be capable of creating about 1000 to possibly up to 1500 J/kg (50hPa-)MLCAPE. Rather widespread storms should form as a result. The amount of insolation and instability being dependent of course on the prior evolution of convective storms. The most likely convective mode is linear convective systems and locally supercells capable of producing some hail and strong winds. It is possible that one or more rather well-organized lines produce isolated severe winds while moving northeastward during the morning.
Especially with supercells, tornadoes will be possible as well. The reasoning is that a narrow band of strong helicity and low level shear > 10 m/s should develop just ahead and to the east of the surface low expected to track northward near the Benelux/German borders according to a consensus of GFS/AFWA-MM5 model runs. However, because of the strong forcing, convective lines will likely dominate over isolated supercells which lowering the overall tornado threat. At the moment, the overall threat appears just to fall short of the level 2 criterion that requires either widespread severe or isolated extremely severe events to occur. An update and/or upgrade may however well be given for certain parts of the forecast area.