Onderstaande reactie gaf superstorm forecaster Piers Corbyn mij vanmorgen, binnen een paar uur nadat ik hem gemaild had.
Toegegeven, hij antwoordt snel, de rest van het oordeel laat ik aan jullie over:
Sir,
Your first problem is that you are talking about things which we - while talking about SERIOUS storms - specifically said are VERY UNLIKELY in the Netherlands given our projected storm tracks all of which put the Netherlands outside or (in one case to come) just on the edge of a core risk projected storm track in all of our storm weather periods this month and last month. Such gusts could apply to places such as the Hebrides or oil rigs and indeed did occur on 9th November (108mph gust = 173kph in Henrides). That storm period was accurately forecast 11months ahead and the storm followed our forecasted timing, intensity and track - and North sea storm surge - as repeated more fully in an update issued in mid October.
In all TV and radio interviews in Holland I have made it very clear that the main dangers to Holland in events this month is sea surge rather than wind and all talk of 200mph or 200kph for Holland (figures quoted to me) are nonsense and not what we ever said for Holland. If some choose to misrepresent this or pretend I didn't say that or edit what I said into something else I am afraid there is not much we can do. However I am not giving any further recorded interviews to any Dutch media and henceforth will only do live interviews.
Perhaps you can clarify who has said such things to your knowledge and why they chose to misrepresent our forecasts in a manner which appears designed to frighten people in the way you incorrectly ascribe to us.
Any unnecessary scaring of people has been a consequence of what appears to be deliberate mis-information in Holland and a Dutch absurd 'definition' of 'superstorm' which is at odds with normal parlance in the USA and UK. I know Rembrandt was good but we are an international operation and have to apply internationally recognised usage of words.
Please read our forecasts and look on www.lowefo.com and an Email on the current situation concerning a justifiably extended time period which I am forwarding.
If you are interested in our proven success rate we can forward such information.
I would be happen to:
(i) Reply on TV to rude, unjustifiable, slanderous, one-sided, ignorant remarks directed against me on TV 'commenting' on an unfairly edited interview on Kasse Channel1.
(ii) Give a presentation to any of your team on what we do.
Thank you
Piers Corbyn
Mijn mail aan hem:
Dear Mr. Corbyn,
I write you this letter regarding the recent weatherforecast for Western-Europe where a superstorm was announced by you.
For a risk of 80% the Netherlands would be hit by this enormous storm with maximum wind gusts up to 175 km/uur during the period 24th - 28th of november.
We hadn´t had this superstorm last days (last sunday maximum windforce over the northern part of the Netherlands 7-8 Bft) and we will not get this storm in the next couple op days. A ridge of high pressure is extending over the British Isles and Southern Norway which will slowly shift to the east later on this week.
I think it´s rather imprudent to make such long term predictions. Everyone, even non-meteorologists, knows that no one can forecast a superstorm for several months ahead including a risk percentage for a small country like the Netherlands. Predictions for super(storms) or tyfoons/hurricanes are allways last minute based. For example, a low pressure system may even activate of inactivate during the last hours before it will pass a certain area. Besides, the course of this low may change also during the last hours which will cause a significant change in windspeeds, concerning the distance of the center of this low to an area.
These are the two most important factors which will stipulate the windspeed or in other words, the question ... will the storm hit our country during the next 24 hours? Therefore when a deepening low is approaching the country, meteorologists will always forecast an associated storm not earlier than 24 to 48 hours ahead to be almost sure the storm will hit the area.
Your forecast has disturbed a lot of people in several countries. I think this is not good. I will not discuss your forecast technique but releasing this forecasts are very dangerous and premature.
I hope you will answer my email.
Regards, Mario Egthuijsen
Meteorologist
www.meteonet.nl (The Netherlands)
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