CORRIGENDUM TO OUR JANUARY FORECAST
We have uncovered a data procedure error whereby solar factors for Extra Activity predicted for the period 11th-14th January were omitted. In addition to this, the predicted Top Level extra activity solar factor for 6th/7th January took effect about one or two days later ie 7th-9th.
For these reasons we failed to forecast the western flow, which has dominated in Western Europe and Scandinavia until this day and has brought the exceptionally warm temperatures.
We shall publish a corrected new forecast for the second half of January later today 14th January.
GENERAL WEATHER SITUATION – CORRIGENDUM 14th JANUARY
a) The period 15th-20th January becomes a more mobile situation than first forecast but neverthelss generally increasingly cold with the jet stream moving south – ie Lows tending to track further South; more winds from the North at times.
b) The period and forecast maps for the very cold ‘dipole’ patterns 15-21st Jan will probably be shifted later to 21st-23rd Jan. Some exceptionally strong blizzard conditions and very strong cold winds are likely in this period.
c) An ongoing similar situation with widespread heavy snow, strong winds and blizzards will continue 24th-27th Jan. There will in addition be a tendency for ‘polar low’ pressure systems to come from the Arctic into North Norway and Finland and an active Low in Italy / the Mediterranean to together ‘pinch’ a High over the Baltic and/or Poland making increasing amounts of snow there while high pressure persists over the northern British Isles, The North Sea, West Norway, Denmark and South Sweden / North Germany.
d) The 28th-31st January period remains as first forecast.
Open a chart over January daily temperatures: Average 1981-2007, the Weather Action forecast for 2008 (average mean temperature during each weather period), and the comparison years 1740 and 1987 here. You can see that our errors caused our forecast for a cold first half of January to be way off the mark!
Open the forecast for December 2007 here.
ELFSTEDENTOCHT END JANUARY 2008? - As per above, it looks more like mid February!
According to our forecast, the weather will turn cold in the third or fourth (not first or second) week of January, and then get colder and colder. The coldest period will be 21st-27th (not 15th-21st), when strong, even gale force winds cause an extreme chill factor. (Disregard the following erroneous forecast: "The wind will calm by about the 22nd to 23th and the cold will release its grip to a small extent. This would be a good time for an Elfstedentocht, but the cold will continue so it could be held later as well.")
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