...NW TX/WRN OK/S CENTRAL KS AREA... CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY FORM LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS WRN OK/KS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 50 KT LLJ AND POTENTIALLY A WEAK LEAD MID
LEVEL SPEED MAX. IT APPEARS THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN OK AND ERN KS...WHILE THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD
RECOVER ACROSS WRN OK AND S CENTRAL KS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN KS AND SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE
INTO NW TX. THIS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. EXPECT SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN KS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FROM THE TRIPLE POINT LOW SWD ALONG THE
DRYLINE INTO NW TX. THE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLY
COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAILÂ WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW TORNADOES DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE W/SW OK AREA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A MORE LINEAR MCS ACROSS SE
KS/WRN MO/OK OVERNIGHT...WITH THE THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
