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...Benelux, northwestern France, parts of Britain...
Quite steep lapse rates were measured in 00Z soundings of De Bilt (06260), Wattisham (EGUW) and Nottingham (03354). Daytime heating should be sufficient for some thunderstorms to develop, considering the observed 8-11 C SFC dew points, though some places, especially in the UK may not see much heating because of the stratiform cloud cover locally in place. Up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE can be reached in places by the end of the afternoon, especially over the southwestern Benlux and extreme northwestern France. Deep-layer wind shear is and is expected to remain low. We expect a number of single-and multicells capable of producing hail below the severe limit of 2 cm.
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