Ik heb nog geen tijd gehad om het hele rapport door te lezen, maar n.a.v. een foutje met het omzetten van de temperatuur even gespit naar de passage over de temperatuursstijging.
The latest estimates of global mean air temperature projected out
to 2100 are shown in Figure 21. The wide range in the projection
envelope is primarily due to uncertainty in future emissions. At
the high end of emissions, with business as usual for several
decades to come, global mean warming is estimated to reach
4-7°C by 2100, locking in climate change at a scale that would
profoundly and adversely affect all of human civilization and all
of the world’s major ecosystems. At the lower end of emissions,
something that would require urgent, deep and long-lasting cuts in
fossil fuel use, and active preservation of the world’s forests, global
mean warming is projected to reach 2-3°C by century’s end. While
clearly a better outcome than the high emissions route, global
mean warming of even just 1.5-2.0°C still carries a signifcant
risk of adverse impacts on ecosystems and human society. For
example, 2°C global temperature rise could lead to suffcient
warming over Greenland to eventually melt much of its ice sheet
(Oppenheimer and Alley 2005), raising sea level by over six
meters and displacing hundreds of millions of people worldwide.
Dus de voorspelling aan de hoge kant qua CO2 uitstoot geeft dus opwarming tussen ongeveer 4 en 7°C, en dat is dan 7.2 tot 12.6°F.
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