interessante visie mbt EC 12 uur

Bericht van: sebastiaan (bussum) , 30-11-2009 21:21 

bij deze

Probably a little too progressive although the basic evolution is correct I think.

Here's the theory:

There is overwhelming NWP and coupled ocean-atmosphere analysis for the longwave trough to become stationary over or just to the west of the UK t144.

Energy from this trough is ejected south-east across Europe because the trough elongation is not able to capture the cyclonic motion, aided by a negatively tilted jetstream.

Surface depressions forming along the jetstream will run into the base of the trough. The poleward side of the upper trough is pulled back west whilst the equatorward side is extended south-east along with the majority of the energy flow. Further south-east ejection of energy takes place, successively forcing height rises to the far NE. The process is likely to be repeated several times before we get a block strong enough to back a pulse of Arctic air underneath the warmer wedge of North Atlantic air as the jet is forced progressively south.

The evolution of GWO phases 5-6-7 supports this type of pattern which is classic cold pattern setting up in the longer term.

Latest GWO plot identifies relative angular momentum edging upwards. We are some way off the type of phase 5-6-7 evolution just yet so ECM 12z, maybe evolution correct, timing too early. The ensemble means will likely continue to best reflect the longer term prospects.
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 30-11-2009 21:22
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ec 240   ( 849)
Jaap (Enkhuizen) -- 30-11-2009 20:23
Re : Putje te noordelijk, en verkeerde richting uit ja   ( 491)
Jef (Zolder, Limburg) ( 41m) -- 30-11-2009 20:26
Re : Putje te noordelijk, en verkeerde richting uit ja   ( 432)
sebastiaan (bussum) -- 30-11-2009 20:28
Re : Anders bekeken ...................   ( 90)
Dick (Eijsden) -- 30-11-2009 22:10
Re : ec 240   ( 375)
Sander (Nieuwegein) -- 30-11-2009 20:30
Enorm gezwalk inderdaad   ( 363)
Anthony (Rotterdam) -- 30-11-2009 20:43
interessante visie mbt EC 12 uur   ( 284)
sebastiaan (bussum) -- 30-11-2009 21:21
Re : ec 240   ( 469)
Pieter (Alblasserdam) -- 30-11-2009 20:24