mooie bijdrage vond ik nog op netweather forum
Regardless of how good the outputs been this evening I think we need to step back a little. On the face of it a big switch in the ensembles but we've been here before, last February being a recent ensemble trauma when from very good agreement it imploded in one run.
The gefs ensembles because of their lower resolution are not to be trusted with shortwaves, even operationals always have tremendous difficulties with these features. Easterlies come in many forms, coming up we get this brief easterly as the euro high heads north, easy isn't it! because its a straightforward evolution with no shortwave!
To get to the cold nirvana we need to see the right WAA into the Arctic whilst at the same time hoping the SW behave themselves and then relying on the right jet curve to advect the cold westwards, alot of factors have to work together and for this reason and putting aside my obvious excitement at the output, to get from where we are now to where the gfs or ecm are past 168hrs is still not the most likeliest outcome.
If the models do somehow keep this trend then perhaps towards the end of the week we can be more certain of the outlook. My advice is simply this absolutely do not trust any output that relies on a shortwave. For older members who have been through many previous shortwave induced dramas they certainly know why i'm so reluctant to want to look much further than 120hrs.
Regardless of how good the outputs been this evening I think we need to step back a little. On the face of it a big switch in the ensembles but we've been here before, last February being a recent ensemble trauma when from very good agreement it imploded in one run.
The gefs ensembles because of their lower resolution are not to be trusted with shortwaves, even operationals always have tremendous difficulties with these features. Easterlies come in many forms, coming up we get this brief easterly as the euro high heads north, easy isn't it! because its a straightforward evolution with no shortwave!
To get to the cold nirvana we need to see the right WAA into the Arctic whilst at the same time hoping the SW behave themselves and then relying on the right jet curve to advect the cold westwards, alot of factors have to work together and for this reason and putting aside my obvious excitement at the output, to get from where we are now to where the gfs or ecm are past 168hrs is still not the most likeliest outcome.
If the models do somehow keep this trend then perhaps towards the end of the week we can be more certain of the outlook. My advice is simply this absolutely do not trust any output that relies on a shortwave. For older members who have been through many previous shortwave induced dramas they certainly know why i'm so reluctant to want to look much further than 120hrs.
„Et nul ne se connait tant qu'il n'a pas souffert, „C'est une dure loi, mais une loi suprème, „Vieille comme le monde et la fatalité, „Qu'l nous faut du malheur regevoir le baptéme, ~Et qu'a ce triste prix tout doit étre acheté. „Les moissons pour murir out besoin de rosée, „Pour vivre et pour sentir l'homme a besoin de pleura, „La joie a pour symbole une plante brisée, „Humide encore de pluie et couverte de fleurs."
