ESTOFEX : kans op zwaar weer

During the night a MCS will probably form over northern France, assiciated with the right entrance region of the curved jet with GFS indicated divergence over The Netherlands at 06Z, SFC convergence almost collocated with this, while elevated CAPE is still expected to be over 1000 J/kg under favorable shear conditions. This MCS/squall line will pose a primary threat of severe gusts and large hail and lots of lightning during the late night/early Monday morning over the Benelux. If this system manages to become very well organised, with observed widespread severe winds, an upgrade of the risk might be necessary.