wou al een update plaatsen, netweather is de bron
Yesterday I commented that there is uncertainty in the FI range of modeling a warming event and one can see from yesterdays mean zonal wind projections that the mean zonal winds were set to stall before reaching reversal stage at the 10 hPa level. This stuttering suggested that a MMW may not occur.
plaatje 1
However, because the wave 1 amplitude was set to increase further I believed that this stuttering in the forecast is just temporary and this is borne out by the latest zonal wind forecast for the 10 hPa level.
plaatje 2
plaatje 3
Here we see the vortex very close to being displaced off the pole with the mean zonal winds down to 7.27m/s. With further warming seen at this level it shouldn't take much to achieve that full displacement and a subsequent MMW. The extent of the negative zonal winds forecast between 70-90ºN can be seen here at T+192.
plaatje 4
Now what is interesting is that there appears to be a tropospheric based upwelling of negative mean zonal winds(-AO) which looks like joining the downwelling negative mean zonal winds form the upper layers of the stratosphere. Will this help produce another NH significant blocking event towards the end of the month? - it certainly looks on the cards.
To see where any northern blocking would occur it is worth looking at the lowest stratospheric charts (100 hPa level) to see where the vortex is strongest. The PV has followed the displacement from higher up the stratosphere and again we are seeing the bulk of the displacement over Eastern Siberia with that trailing arm towards Greenland.
plaatje 5
We need to see what happens to that Greenland segment of vortex which I feel will be critical in determining whether we are likely to benefit from any northern blocking.
afbeelding 1-5
Yesterday I commented that there is uncertainty in the FI range of modeling a warming event and one can see from yesterdays mean zonal wind projections that the mean zonal winds were set to stall before reaching reversal stage at the 10 hPa level. This stuttering suggested that a MMW may not occur.
plaatje 1
However, because the wave 1 amplitude was set to increase further I believed that this stuttering in the forecast is just temporary and this is borne out by the latest zonal wind forecast for the 10 hPa level.
plaatje 2
plaatje 3
Here we see the vortex very close to being displaced off the pole with the mean zonal winds down to 7.27m/s. With further warming seen at this level it shouldn't take much to achieve that full displacement and a subsequent MMW. The extent of the negative zonal winds forecast between 70-90ºN can be seen here at T+192.
plaatje 4
Now what is interesting is that there appears to be a tropospheric based upwelling of negative mean zonal winds(-AO) which looks like joining the downwelling negative mean zonal winds form the upper layers of the stratosphere. Will this help produce another NH significant blocking event towards the end of the month? - it certainly looks on the cards.
To see where any northern blocking would occur it is worth looking at the lowest stratospheric charts (100 hPa level) to see where the vortex is strongest. The PV has followed the displacement from higher up the stratosphere and again we are seeing the bulk of the displacement over Eastern Siberia with that trailing arm towards Greenland.
plaatje 5
We need to see what happens to that Greenland segment of vortex which I feel will be critical in determining whether we are likely to benefit from any northern blocking.
afbeelding 1-5
„Et nul ne se connait tant qu'il n'a pas souffert, „C'est une dure loi, mais une loi suprème, „Vieille comme le monde et la fatalité, „Qu'l nous faut du malheur regevoir le baptéme, ~Et qu'a ce triste prix tout doit étre acheté. „Les moissons pour murir out besoin de rosée, „Pour vivre et pour sentir l'homme a besoin de pleura, „La joie a pour symbole une plante brisée, „Humide encore de pluie et couverte de fleurs."