ECM 12Z sticks to its guns by saying no easterly next week, and given that the UKMO 12z run has also backed off (or delayed things as some may prefer it to be described as) from its output last night, then I would expect this to turn out to be another poor episode for the GFS and the GFS model will gradually back down over the next few runs. I am confident of calling this potential easterly now as a "no go" because of the increasing amounts of energy that are now being progged into the northern arm of the jet in a realistic time frame on the models, and also from previous experience of viewing this type of thing being played out on the models before.
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