But, there is also a signal from GWO composites for high pressure to our west / NW transfering towards the UK over time. The trumping factor in all of this is the influence of downwelling zonal wind anomalies from the high troposphere - models are lurching all over the place w/r/t the polar field - symptomatic of poor modelling of the upper atmosphere.
As was suggested, the most safe assumption for downwelling to drive the Artic Oscillation negative is for this to happen from mid month. Before that, we see a relative angular momentum reaching its greatest anomaly of the winter and a strong phase 5 projection. This augers for height rises to our north and north west.
My guess is that mid term modelling is picking up the signal for phase 6-7 type progression which is for the ridge to become more orienated to our west and trough becoming re-established to our east with enough flow over the top to keep it as a mid latitude feature.
The movement of the high back towards Greenland programmed t216+ can only be accredited to stratospheric downwelling. Possible but given the way models have failed to cope with this, unwise to place too much faith in this.
Either way, cold becoming established and not going anywhere fast. Precipitation, hmmm, that's the thing.
Bron netweather
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