FRIDAY NOON
Worst of Euro Winter Done
The cold is back, and with it the major storm across Europe from areas southeast of London over the continent, BUT NOT in southeastern England. I thought this would be farther north earlier when I posted on the idea of heavy snows in the southeast, but instead this is farther south. One can see how wild this storm is, and I thought the center would ride on the north side of the Alps. Obviously, that is not the case. Hence, the bust on that forecast idea.
A bad idea is a bad idea, no sugarcoating.
Obviously, the cold has returned, and the next, perhaps last, shot at major snows (it is going to snow in the southeast of England in a more widespread, though lighter, fashion tonight and tomorrow) is next week, but this looks more like the central and northern part of Great Britain rather than centered around London.
But in general terms, this pattern is marking the beginning of the end. I look for the areas from Spain to the Balkans to go above normal for the week of the 21st (it's still cold in front of us) and then it's basically back and forth. While March is still colder than normal, it's not as bad against the means as is it has been. At least that is how I see it now.
For the record, this is the coldest winter in much of Europe since '95-'96, and in the targeted forecast areas for cold, it actually beat '02-'03.
This was a poster winter for my theory on why the globe will cool overall. While the El Nino "spiked" the Earth's temperatures, the natural reversal of oceanic cycles, the low total solar irradiance, and increased volcanic activity, all intangibles to the modeling, formed the center point of the winter idea. The "spike" in the global temperature will quickly be reversed as the El Nino fades, and the next round of cooling will probably send some monthly readings down to or below normal within the next three years.
The next 20-30 years will test my theory, but at least round one with a practical test of it in the public arena of forecasting in Europe and the U.S. went my way, not the way of the agencies issuing warmer forecasts.
That being said, the situation this weekend is not as I envisioned... it's farther south, and that needs to be said.
Ciao for now. *****
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