DISCUSSION
...UK, parts of Ireland, the Low countries and northern and central Germany...
A weak warm front will we working its way southward and southwesterward into the British Isles, the Benelux and France, central Germany and northern Poland. Steep lapse rates observed over southern Scandinavia are expected to advect southward into the area. Low-level moisture and solar heating will likely be adequate to produce 400 - 800 J/kg MLCAPE over northern and Germany and a few 100's of J/kg MLCAPE over the British Isles. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form in the region. Near the warm front and over the British Isles LCL heights will likely be rather low, and low level lapse rates quite steep, so that a few weak tornadoes could be possible in the indicated area. Some thunderstorms will likely produce hail that could exceed the limit of 2 cm diameter locally. Severe events are expected to be so isolated that a risk category is not warranted at the moment. However, an update may be needed when more instability than currently expected materializes.
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Onzeker dus, allemaal now-cast-werk. Niets is nog zeker
Nico
...UK, parts of Ireland, the Low countries and northern and central Germany...
A weak warm front will we working its way southward and southwesterward into the British Isles, the Benelux and France, central Germany and northern Poland. Steep lapse rates observed over southern Scandinavia are expected to advect southward into the area. Low-level moisture and solar heating will likely be adequate to produce 400 - 800 J/kg MLCAPE over northern and Germany and a few 100's of J/kg MLCAPE over the British Isles. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form in the region. Near the warm front and over the British Isles LCL heights will likely be rather low, and low level lapse rates quite steep, so that a few weak tornadoes could be possible in the indicated area. Some thunderstorms will likely produce hail that could exceed the limit of 2 cm diameter locally. Severe events are expected to be so isolated that a risk category is not warranted at the moment. However, an update may be needed when more instability than currently expected materializes.
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Onzeker dus, allemaal now-cast-werk. Niets is nog zeker
Nico
