interessante note van Estofex:
[quote}
As a side-note:
An outstanding and potential dangerous depression is in full progress during that forecast at roughly 48N/19W. A depression (probably a Shapiro-Keyser-type) becomes quasi-stationary over that region with forecast surface pressure dropping down to 964hPa (in repesct of latest OPC discussion) and outstanding signals of an intense warm seclusion process. Phase diagrams support that idea and the feature acquires shallow warm core characteristica and even a deep and symmetric warm core structure during the end of the forecast period. A good connection to a modified subtropical air mass causes a warm/moist back-bent warm front/occlusion to wrap around the center with a gradually intensifying hypergradient along its western fringe. Following the core structure, strongest wind evolve in the lowest 1-3km AGL, especially as the back-bent front wraps around the center. GFS sticks to that scenario for the past runs with winds at 850hPa increasing to 40-45m/s, which ought to yield surface wind gusts well in excess of 35-40 m/s just to the SW/S of the depression's center (42°-50°N/15°-25°W). We would not be surprised to see an eye-like feature, as convection consolidates around the center as it drifts eastwards.
Link: http://www.estofex.org/[/url}
Zou wel eens aardig dichtbij kunnen gaan komen!
[quote}
As a side-note:
An outstanding and potential dangerous depression is in full progress during that forecast at roughly 48N/19W. A depression (probably a Shapiro-Keyser-type) becomes quasi-stationary over that region with forecast surface pressure dropping down to 964hPa (in repesct of latest OPC discussion) and outstanding signals of an intense warm seclusion process. Phase diagrams support that idea and the feature acquires shallow warm core characteristica and even a deep and symmetric warm core structure during the end of the forecast period. A good connection to a modified subtropical air mass causes a warm/moist back-bent warm front/occlusion to wrap around the center with a gradually intensifying hypergradient along its western fringe. Following the core structure, strongest wind evolve in the lowest 1-3km AGL, especially as the back-bent front wraps around the center. GFS sticks to that scenario for the past runs with winds at 850hPa increasing to 40-45m/s, which ought to yield surface wind gusts well in excess of 35-40 m/s just to the SW/S of the depression's center (42°-50°N/15°-25°W). We would not be surprised to see an eye-like feature, as convection consolidates around the center as it drifts eastwards.
Link: http://www.estofex.org/[/url}
Zou wel eens aardig dichtbij kunnen gaan komen!
https://www.facebook.com/francois.debets.7/
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