A level 1 was issued for S Benelux and W Germany mainly for tornadoes.
SYNOPSIS
An upper longwave trough is centered over the North Sea and will shift eastward during the period. At its southern tip over W-central France, cyclogenesis is expected. According to GFS, the surface low should move to the northeast across Germany towards the Baltic Sea. Over the NE Atlantic, the blocking high will persist.
DISCUSSION
...Benelux countries, W / NW Germany...
Ahead of the developing surface low, instability is forecast to increase during the day. Some hundred J/kg CAPE are forecast over the southern parts of Belgium, Luxembourg and western Germany where easterly LL winds are expected. SWerly winds at mid / upper levels lead to strong directional shear in this region which will result in enhanced SRH values (250 - 400 m²/s²). The overlap of SRH and CAPE is limited to a narrow band across NW Germany and NE Belgium but current thinking is that the surface winds may back also in the southern parts of this area where most instability is forecast. Given low cloud bases due to low LCL / LFC heights, some of the storms may become tornadic. Weak (F0 - F1) tornadoes should be most likely but an isolated strong (F2 - F3) event is not ruled out. In the late evening hours, most of the CAPE vanishes and storms will dissipate.
Hmm schatten ze het nu niet wat groots in?
SYNOPSIS
An upper longwave trough is centered over the North Sea and will shift eastward during the period. At its southern tip over W-central France, cyclogenesis is expected. According to GFS, the surface low should move to the northeast across Germany towards the Baltic Sea. Over the NE Atlantic, the blocking high will persist.
DISCUSSION
...Benelux countries, W / NW Germany...
Ahead of the developing surface low, instability is forecast to increase during the day. Some hundred J/kg CAPE are forecast over the southern parts of Belgium, Luxembourg and western Germany where easterly LL winds are expected. SWerly winds at mid / upper levels lead to strong directional shear in this region which will result in enhanced SRH values (250 - 400 m²/s²). The overlap of SRH and CAPE is limited to a narrow band across NW Germany and NE Belgium but current thinking is that the surface winds may back also in the southern parts of this area where most instability is forecast. Given low cloud bases due to low LCL / LFC heights, some of the storms may become tornadic. Weak (F0 - F1) tornadoes should be most likely but an isolated strong (F2 - F3) event is not ruled out. In the late evening hours, most of the CAPE vanishes and storms will dissipate.
Hmm schatten ze het nu niet wat groots in?
Weerfoto's op mijn pagina www.facebook.com/madskiesbart