Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 23 May 2010 06:00 to Mon 24 May 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 23 May 2010 05:42
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK
A level 1 was issued for the Netherlands and NW Germany mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.
SYNOPSIS
High pressure is centered over the British Channel and a weak upper trough is located over the Black Sea. A shortwave trough will approach from the North Atlantic, moving towards the southern North Sea. In the wake of this trough, cold polar air will replace a warm subtropical airmass over portions of central Europe. Another upper trough, initially located east of the Azores, moves towards W Iberia.
DISCUSSION
...Netherlands, NW Germany from 18Z until 06Z...
Ahead of the shortwave trough, a weak cold front will form over the North Sea, moving to the SSE. In the vicinity of the frontal boundary, some low-end instability is forecast and QG forcing may be sufficient for initiation. If thunderstorms develop in this environment, they will profit from strong 20 - 30 m/s deep layer shear and 100 - 150 m²/s² SRH3. As the low / mid level wind field is relatively strong, the main threat should be severe wind gusts. Storms may either stay discrete or merge into a bowing line. A tornado is not ruled out as LL shear is strong and the cloud bases should be relatively low. A level 1 should be warranted.
Valid: Sun 23 May 2010 06:00 to Mon 24 May 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 23 May 2010 05:42
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK
A level 1 was issued for the Netherlands and NW Germany mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.
SYNOPSIS
High pressure is centered over the British Channel and a weak upper trough is located over the Black Sea. A shortwave trough will approach from the North Atlantic, moving towards the southern North Sea. In the wake of this trough, cold polar air will replace a warm subtropical airmass over portions of central Europe. Another upper trough, initially located east of the Azores, moves towards W Iberia.
DISCUSSION
...Netherlands, NW Germany from 18Z until 06Z...
Ahead of the shortwave trough, a weak cold front will form over the North Sea, moving to the SSE. In the vicinity of the frontal boundary, some low-end instability is forecast and QG forcing may be sufficient for initiation. If thunderstorms develop in this environment, they will profit from strong 20 - 30 m/s deep layer shear and 100 - 150 m²/s² SRH3. As the low / mid level wind field is relatively strong, the main threat should be severe wind gusts. Storms may either stay discrete or merge into a bowing line. A tornado is not ruled out as LL shear is strong and the cloud bases should be relatively low. A level 1 should be warranted.
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