I would have thought a drop in global temperatures (or should we say falling off) is an inevitable consequence of the PDO switch and La Nina episode. Where this bottoms out will provide us with very useful benchmarking data for global temperatures. One thing that impresses me is that the atmospheric circulation has readily embraced La Nina whilst the last Nino really struggled the engage and when it did, it rapidl fell apart.
Right now our loss of snowcover seems to have stabilised. This will provide us with a good clue as to how cold the pole is during the autumn:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/snow/
One variable this winter will be the potential for strong build up of snowcover c/o low stratospehric temperatures but lack of a strongly organised polar vortex potentially allowing realese of this cold into the mid latitudes. This is well worth considering as the transfer of stratostphric ozone from the tropics to the pole is likely to be severely inhibited by La Nina. As a result, less ozone = colder stratosphere and lower pressure and lower temperatures over the pole.
In so far as the second half of the summer, I can see the dominance of the Atlantic ridge so that would imply the remainder of the summer to slip unoticeably by.
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/58354-in-depth-technical-model-discussion/page__st__340
Right now our loss of snowcover seems to have stabilised. This will provide us with a good clue as to how cold the pole is during the autumn:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/snow/
One variable this winter will be the potential for strong build up of snowcover c/o low stratospehric temperatures but lack of a strongly organised polar vortex potentially allowing realese of this cold into the mid latitudes. This is well worth considering as the transfer of stratostphric ozone from the tropics to the pole is likely to be severely inhibited by La Nina. As a result, less ozone = colder stratosphere and lower pressure and lower temperatures over the pole.
In so far as the second half of the summer, I can see the dominance of the Atlantic ridge so that would imply the remainder of the summer to slip unoticeably by.
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/58354-in-depth-technical-model-discussion/page__st__340
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