"...UK and Benelux area...
In particular on the cold side of the occlusion, shallow instability (-5 to -15°C level tops), weak shear and very slow cloud motion will greatly enhance the potential for water- or landspouts.
The instability on the occlusion (Benelux/W Germany) itself appears elevated (ICAPE but no MLCAPE) but with higher tops, has also warm air and decreased lapse rates near the ground and therefore probably does not pose this slight theat. However, during the night the cooler low-level unstable airmass enters the Netherlands while GFS shows a band of strong convergence along the coast. The spout chances will spread eastward during Sunday. "
In particular on the cold side of the occlusion, shallow instability (-5 to -15°C level tops), weak shear and very slow cloud motion will greatly enhance the potential for water- or landspouts.
The instability on the occlusion (Benelux/W Germany) itself appears elevated (ICAPE but no MLCAPE) but with higher tops, has also warm air and decreased lapse rates near the ground and therefore probably does not pose this slight theat. However, during the night the cooler low-level unstable airmass enters the Netherlands while GFS shows a band of strong convergence along the coast. The spout chances will spread eastward during Sunday. "
Kunt u bliksemflitsen sturen, zodat zij gaan, en tegen u zeggen: Zie, hier zijn wij? (Job 38) www.convectiveweather.blogspot.com
