Op 23 juni 2010 heeft het IPCC zijn lijst met auteurs en
review editors, van het vijfde IPCC rapport over klimaat en klimaatverandering bekend gemaakt. Feitelijk bestaat het rapport uit drie rapporten, één van elke werkgroep. In totaal werken 831 mensen aan de rapporten, 258 in werkgroep I, 302 in werkgroep II en 272 in werkgroep III.
Werkgroep I houdt zich bezig met de 'fysieke wetenschapsbasis'. Het rapport dat zij uitbrengen is dus voor weer- en klimaatliefhebbers het meest interessante. Werkgroep II houdt zich bezig met de impact, adaptatie en kwetsbaarheid van klimaatverandering. Werkgroep III gaat over de mitigatie van klimaatverandering.
De inhoudsopgave van het rapport van werkgroep I is inmiddels ook vastgesteld. Er worden veertien hoofdstukken geschreven, met de volgende onderwerpen:
- Summary for Policy Makers
- Technical Summary
Chapter 1: Introduction
- Executive Summary
• Rationale and key concepts of the WG1 contribution
• Treatment of uncertainty
• Climate change projections since FAR
- Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface
- Executive Summary
• Changes in surface temperature and soil temperature
• Changes in temperature, humidity and clouds
• Changes in atmospheric composition
• Changes in radiation fields and energy budget
• Changes in hydrology, runoff, precipitation and drought
• Changes in atmospheric circulation, including wind
• Spatial and temporal patterns of climate variability
• Changes in extreme events, including tropical and extratropical storms
- Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 3: Observations: Ocean
- Executive Summary
• Changes in ocean temperature and heat content
• Ocean salinity change and freshwater fluxes
• Sea level change, ocean waves and storm surges
• Ocean biogeochemical changes, including ocean acidification
• Changes in ocean surface processes
• Changes in ocean circulation
• Spatial and temporal patterns of ocean variability
- Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 4: Observations: Cryosphere
- Executive Summary
• Changes in ice sheets, including mass balance
• Changes in ice shelves
• Changes in glaciers and ice caps
• Sea ice variability and trends
• Snow and ice cover variability and trends
• Changes in frozen ground
• Dynamics of ice sheets, ice shelves, ice caps, glaciers and sea ice
- Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives
- Executive Summary
• Characteristics of early instrumental, documentary and natural climate archives
• Reconstruction of radiative forcing and climate response
• Reconstruction of regional variability and extremes
• Abrupt climate changes and their regional expression
• Sea level and ice sheets: patterns, amplitudes and rates of change
• Paleoclimate perspective on irreversibility in the climate system
• Paleodata-model intercomparisons
- Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 6: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles
- Executive Summary
• Past changes in CO2, CH4, N2O and biogeochemical cycles
• Recent trends in global and regional sources, sinks and inventories, including land
use change
• Processes and understanding of changes, including ocean acidification
• Interactions between the carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, including the
nitrogen cycle
• Projections of changes in carbon and other biogeochemical cycles
• Greenhouse gas stabilisation
• Carbon cycle – climate feedbacks and irreversibility
• Geoengineering involving the carbon cycle
- Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 7: Clouds and Aerosols
- Executive Summary
• Observations of clouds and their representation in models
• Coupling of clouds, water vapour, precipitation and the large-scale circulation
• Cloud and water vapour feedbacks and their effects on climate sensitivity
• Observations of aerosols and their representation in models
• Aerosol types including black carbon: chemistry, sources, sinks and distribution
• Direct and indirect aerosol forcing and effects, including contrails and cosmic rays
• Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions
• Geoengineering involving clouds and aerosols
- Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing
- Executive Summary
• Natural radiative forcing changes: solar and volcanic
• Anthropogenic radiative forcing, including effects from land surface changes
• Effects of atmospheric chemistry and composition
• Spatial and temporal expression of radiative forcing
• Greenhouse gas and other metrics, including Global Warming Potential (GWP)
and Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP)
- Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 9: Evaluation of Climate Models
- Executive Summary
• The hierarchy of climate models: from global to regional
• Downscaling methods
• Assessing model performance, including quantitative measures and their use
• New model components and couplings
• Representation of processes and feedbacks in climate models
• Simulation of recent and longer term records
• Simulation of regional patterns, variability and extremes
- Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional
- Executive Summary
• Evaluation of methodologies
• Atmospheric and surface changes
• Changes in ocean properties
• Cryosphere changes
• Extreme events
• Pre-instrumental perspective
• Implications of attribution for projections
- Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 11: Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability
- Executive Summary
• Predictability of interannual to decadal climate variations and change
• Projections for the next few decades
• Regional climate change, variability and extremes
• Atmospheric composition and air quality
• Possible effects of geoengineering
• Quantification of the range of climate change projections
- Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility
- Executive Summary
• Scenario description
• Projections for the 21st century
• Projections beyond the 21st century
• Regional climate change, variability and extremes
• Forcing, response and climate sensitivity
• Climate change commitment and inertia
• Potential for abrupt change and irreversibility in the climate system
• Quantification of the range of climate change projections
- Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 13: Sea Level Change
- Executive Summary
• Synthesis of past sea level change and its components
• Models for sea level change
• Projections of globally averaged sea level rise
• Projections of the regional distribution of sea level change
• Extreme sea level events
• Potential ice sheet instability and its implications
• Multi-century projections
- Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 14: Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change
- Executive Summary
• Patterns of variability: observations, understanding and projections
• Monsoon systems: observations, understanding and projections
• Extremes: observations, understanding and projections
• Interconnections among phenomena
- Frequently Asked Questions
- Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections
- Annex II: Glossary
- Annex III: Acronyms and Regional Abbreviations
- Annex IV: List of Authors
- Annex V: List of Reviewers
- Index
Er zijn drie grote veranderingen in opzet ten opzichte van de vorige rapporten: voor het eerst wordt onderscheid gemaakt in projecties van klimaatverandering op de korte termijn (tot 2050) en de lange termijn (na 2050). Verder worden twee deelonderwerpen apart behandeld: wolken & aerosolen en biochemische cycli, waaronder de koolstofcyclus. Waarnemingen van het klimaat en klimaatverandering zijn uitgesplitst in drie hoofdstukken: atmosfeer, oceaan en cryosfeer. Het rapport van werkgroep I moet verschijnen aan het einde van september 2013. De definitieve samenvatting voor beleidsmakers wordt begin september vastgesteld, daarna gaat het rapport naar de drukker.
In de lijst van auteurs en reviewers van het rapport van werkgroep I staan een aantal bekende namen, verder schrijven ook een paar Nederlanders en Belgen mee. Per hoofdstuk een aantal namen:
Chapter 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface
- Albert Klein Tank, Nederland, coördinerend hoofdauteur
- Frank Dentener, Nederland, hoofdauteur
Chapter 4: Observations: Cryosphere
- Philippe Huybrechts, België, review editor
Chapter 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives
- Juerg Luterbacher, Duitsland, hoofdauteur
- Timothy Osborn, Verenigd Koninkrijk, hoofdauteur
Chapter 11: Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability
- Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Nederland, hoofdauteur
Chapter 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility
- Thierry Fichefet, België, hoofdauteur
Chapter 13: Sea Level Change
- Roderik van de Wal, Nederland, review editor
Chapter 14: Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change
- Jens Hesselbjerg Christenen, Denemarken, coördinerend hoofdauteur
- Kevin Trenberth, Verenigde Staten, review editor
Er zijn mensen uit meer dan 40 landen vertegenwoordigd. De meeste experts komen uit de Verenigde Staten (69), daarna het Verenigd Koninkrijk (29), China (18), Frankrijk (16), Duitsland (12) en Canada (10). Nederland en België hebben gezamenlijk 6 mensen die meewerken aan het vijfde IPCC rapport.
Gr. Ben
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