Hurricane Karl is wederom sterker geworden. Het is inmiddels volgens het NHC van de NOAA een dikke categorie 2 orkaan met windsnelheden van 105mph. Extra intensivering wordt verwacht in de komende uren. Dat betekent dat een cat 3 binnen handbereik is (vanaf 110mph). Volgens de Dvorak meetmeethode werd de kerndruk van Karl vanmorgen om 08.15 berekend op 952 hPa met windsnelheden van 129mph. Dat zou al een categorie 3, bijna categorie 4 betekenen.
Onderstaand het de observaties van het NHC, een IR-foto van Karl en de metingen via de Dvorak methode.
...KARL A LITTLE STRONGER...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NEARING THE
COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 94.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE FRIDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...
165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED...AND KARL COULD REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM. A JOINT U.S. EPA AND MEXICAN GOVERNMENT OBSERVING
STATION ON SACRIFICE ISLAND NEAR VERACRUZ RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 36 MPH...58 KM/HR...AND A GUST TO 41 MPH...66
KM/HR.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
Onderstaand het de observaties van het NHC, een IR-foto van Karl en de metingen via de Dvorak methode.
...KARL A LITTLE STRONGER...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NEARING THE
COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 94.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE FRIDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...
165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED...AND KARL COULD REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM. A JOINT U.S. EPA AND MEXICAN GOVERNMENT OBSERVING
STATION ON SACRIFICE ISLAND NEAR VERACRUZ RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 36 MPH...58 KM/HR...AND A GUST TO 41 MPH...66
KM/HR.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 17-09-2010 10:07