An intense low pressure system will affect western Europe on Thursday. A strong mid-level jet streak reaching 60 m/s at 500 hPa will spread into northern Germany and Poland late in the period. At low levels, a low-level jet will evolve over France and Germany during the day. Latest models indicate that an occlusion will move over the North Sea in the evening hours. While the mid-level temperatures will decrease, neutral lapse rates are forecast over the North Sea. Along the occlusion, strong forced ascend is expected to support a narrow cold-frontal rain band that will move across northern Germany and Poland during the night. The potential for some thunder will increase near Denmark where rather low equilibrium level temperatures are expected. Given the strong low-level vertical wind shear, severe wind gusts are possible.
Farther south, the narrow cold frontal rain band will be rather shallow and is not expected to produce thunder. However, severe wind gusts and isolated tornadoes are not ruled out given the strong low-level vertical wind shear.
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