Ik vond nog een aardige visie van een van de experts (hij stelt oa weersverwachtingen van deze site op) van netweather.
The track of the weekends low and how it interacts with the LPs to our south west are crucial and a real headache for the models, this coupled with the modelling of the mid Atlantic high is making me suspicious of all output past that point. My guess is, that rather like the no show super storm, the low to the south west may not make it as far north as current output suggests.
The change is coming through greater flow over the top of the mean ridge. The coupled ocean-atmosphere system suggests that the ECM this morning blows heights to the north too fast and is an outlier. If so, that low to our SW is unlikely to have much of an impact and is incorrectly modelled at present.
The GFS Ensemble mean continues to suggest below average conditions for some time to come, not as much as in the last week or two, but still below average with snow potential.
The principle behind the upper low working its way north-east towards the UK is predicated on the block weakening and pulling back west.
The models may well be underestimating the persistent, particularly in the mid latitudes so the scenario being advertised by the 06z GFS comes into play where the upper low begins to eject shortwaves eastwards across the Channel and northern France leading to a significant undercut of cold air ahead of the fronts. Potential for a very snowy period if that's the case for much of central / southern England to start.
However, as per last week, the upper low may come under pressure and any westerly intertia may end up south of the UK. There is of course the other scenario whereby the upper low becomes one huge 'trigger low' for another renewed northerly outbreak.
Positief lijkt mij dat de poolwervel weer gaat splitsen, maar het lijkt mij nog volstrekt onmogelijk om te zeggen hoe dit vervolgens verder gaat.
The track of the weekends low and how it interacts with the LPs to our south west are crucial and a real headache for the models, this coupled with the modelling of the mid Atlantic high is making me suspicious of all output past that point. My guess is, that rather like the no show super storm, the low to the south west may not make it as far north as current output suggests.
The change is coming through greater flow over the top of the mean ridge. The coupled ocean-atmosphere system suggests that the ECM this morning blows heights to the north too fast and is an outlier. If so, that low to our SW is unlikely to have much of an impact and is incorrectly modelled at present.
The GFS Ensemble mean continues to suggest below average conditions for some time to come, not as much as in the last week or two, but still below average with snow potential.
The principle behind the upper low working its way north-east towards the UK is predicated on the block weakening and pulling back west.
The models may well be underestimating the persistent, particularly in the mid latitudes so the scenario being advertised by the 06z GFS comes into play where the upper low begins to eject shortwaves eastwards across the Channel and northern France leading to a significant undercut of cold air ahead of the fronts. Potential for a very snowy period if that's the case for much of central / southern England to start.
However, as per last week, the upper low may come under pressure and any westerly intertia may end up south of the UK. There is of course the other scenario whereby the upper low becomes one huge 'trigger low' for another renewed northerly outbreak.
Positief lijkt mij dat de poolwervel weer gaat splitsen, maar het lijkt mij nog volstrekt onmogelijk om te zeggen hoe dit vervolgens verder gaat.
1. Voor de periode maandag-woensdag wordt een verzachting getoond, maar zijn de opers aan de grond kouder dan het ensemblegemiddelde.
2. Voor de zeer lange termijn worden na dag 10 terug koudere temperaturen voorzien tussen 0 en 5°.
De positie van het dooifront (of LMG) is nog allerminst zeker en ligt nog niet in de betrouwbare termijn.
Ik vind het best allemaal spannend, en zelfs al zou het tijdelijk dooien, dan nog geloof ik dat er niet veel hoeft te gebeuren om de kou terug hier te krijgen.
Tot gisteren werden strakke ZW'ers berekend voor begin komende week. Dat kalft allemaal af. Benieuwd wat het wordt.
Maar aan het begin van de winter ben ik uiterst positief
Grts
„Et nul ne se connait tant qu'il n'a pas souffert, „C'est une dure loi, mais une loi suprème, „Vieille comme le monde et la fatalité, „Qu'l nous faut du malheur regevoir le baptéme, ~Et qu'a ce triste prix tout doit étre acheté. „Les moissons pour murir out besoin de rosée, „Pour vivre et pour sentir l'homme a besoin de pleura, „La joie a pour symbole une plante brisée, „Humide encore de pluie et couverte de fleurs."
