Onderstaande bijdrage geeft duidelijk aan dat GFS wel trek heeft in flink winters weer. Dat wordt zometeen weer weer 'ouderwetsch' virtueel smullen bij GFS.
GFS ensembles are going bonkers for a reload from the NE. Day 11 H5 mean height anomaly depicting a 465m height anomaly (blocking ridge) centred over southern Greenland.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zGFSEnsembles500mbHeightAnomalyNH264.gif
The day 11-15 and NAEFS ensemble suites are equally taking.
It cannot be stressed enough how unusual it is for an ensemble mean to pick this much of a signal up at this range. The other point to note is that the scheduled start (around mid month) is counting down through successive runs and not remaining at the outer reaches of the run as can sometimes be the case.
Current GFS guidance is suggesting 850hPa values between 4 and 6 degrees below normal for days 11-15:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zENS11-15day850mbTempAnomalyEurope.gif
and worth noting that at the same point for the current spell the programmed temperature differences were similar so we could well see the models build more significant cold the closer this gets.
GFS ensembles are going bonkers for a reload from the NE. Day 11 H5 mean height anomaly depicting a 465m height anomaly (blocking ridge) centred over southern Greenland.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zGFSEnsembles500mbHeightAnomalyNH264.gif
The day 11-15 and NAEFS ensemble suites are equally taking.
It cannot be stressed enough how unusual it is for an ensemble mean to pick this much of a signal up at this range. The other point to note is that the scheduled start (around mid month) is counting down through successive runs and not remaining at the outer reaches of the run as can sometimes be the case.
Current GFS guidance is suggesting 850hPa values between 4 and 6 degrees below normal for days 11-15:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zENS11-15day850mbTempAnomalyEurope.gif
and worth noting that at the same point for the current spell the programmed temperature differences were similar so we could well see the models build more significant cold the closer this gets.
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 04-12-2010 16:54
Zwarte, dreigende wolken worden soms uit alle hemelstreken nog door den dampkring, die ons omringt, heen gejaagd en ontbinden zich dan niet zelden in koude, somtijds met sneeuwvlokken vermengde regendroppelen of kletterenden hagel, die de ontspruitende grashalmen en de teedere bloemen, welke reeds de lagchende knopjes in den koesterenden zonneschijn ontsloten, met verwoesting dreigen; maar geen nood! achter die donkere wolken is de Lente geboren. Petronella Moens.
