Van de opsteller van de weerberichten op Netweather vond ik nog onderstaande bericht. Een erg koude decembermaand lijkt dus volgens hem goed mogelijk.
ECM day 6-10 H5 ensemble mean anomaly:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zECMWFENS6-10day500mbHeightAnomalyNH.gif
GFS day 6-10 H5 ensemble mean anomaly:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zENS6-10day500mbHeightAnomalyNH.gif
Impressive, if not spectacular agreement, stupendous blocking over Greenland.
The global wind signal has amplified some in the last day so good support for anomalous ridging. Based on this, a sustained spell with temperatures widely 4C - 6C below average looks very likely. Precipitation signal is also a lot better than last cold snap so widespread snowfall also looks probable. If you're a cold weather fan, sit back and enjoy the ride.
In the longer term, the GFS is keen to develop a retrogressing block allowing an attempted breakdown from the SW. It should be noted that the models attempted to do this last time and based upon where angular momentum is heading, a brief period of lower pressure in the Atlantic (any low pressure to reinforce the cold by passing below the Channel ?) before trough disruption takes place and we return with a blocked Atlantic to end the year. Whilst the cold may moderate a touch, that pattern is unlikely to drive away the cold for good.
Quote selectie
