"MLCAPE30 should be able to rise to values on the order of 500 J/kg ahead of the system over much of France, The BeNeNux and western germany and it may be somewhat higher over east-central France. Strong forcing and moderately strong (20 kt) low-level shear suggests that most storms will organise into linear convective systems producing strong wind gusts and posing a minor threat of large hail. Given that low LCL heights are expected to be quite low over northern France, the southeastern Benelux countries, Rheinland and Nordrhein-Westfalen, one or two weak tornadoes cannot be ruled out in those areas."
En:
"Since the deep-layer shear will be very strong (~ 60-70kt) there is a high severe weather threat with any storm that forms in that area. Main threat will be damaging winds."
En:
"The setup is again on the slight risk/mdt risk boundary. Given that models have a low coverage of storms I tend to keep it slight there....but I might change my mind."
Zie www.estofex.org voor meer.
En:
"Since the deep-layer shear will be very strong (~ 60-70kt) there is a high severe weather threat with any storm that forms in that area. Main threat will be damaging winds."
En:
"The setup is again on the slight risk/mdt risk boundary. Given that models have a low coverage of storms I tend to keep it slight there....but I might change my mind."
Zie www.estofex.org voor meer.
*NM*
*NM*