ESTOFEX ziet het wel zitten

...southern England, Benelux, northwestern France...
Quite a number of positive factors for tornado formation will likely be present over the area tonight. Today's 12Z soundings suggest that some low-level MLCAPE is present ahead of the frontal system. A sharp wind shift along the front implyies the presence of vertical vorticity that may be stretched by forecast strong upward vertical velocities. Strong low level shear could promote supercell-like updraft/downdraft couplets along the frontal zone. Therefore, A few tornadoes will be possible as the front passes over southern England, northwestern France, and into the Benelux countries. Additionally, strong to severe gusts will be possible near and behind the frontal zone. Tornadic and wind threat are expected to be great enhough to warrant a slight risk over the area.