BOM van gisteren was geweldig, dagenlange transportkou, heerlijk! NOAA's visie wijst op wellicht wat meer hogedrukvorming dat de opers lieten zien.
The latest update on the preliminary discussions over at NOAA suggest that the operational runs maybe a little flat upstream and have factored in the GEFS mean as its more amplified for days 5-7.
They also comment on our Greenland high retrogressing towards northern Canada and remaining there for quite some time with a decent ridge further south into the USA.
Also they expect troughing into the Atlantic, depending on the amplitude of this trough we may see a ridge building ne'wards, lower heights to the north doesn't always lead to milder conditions if we can keep a ridge far enough north, also with the deep cold over Scandi we may see a surface high developing and these working together to keep the UK on the cold side.
I wouldn't be surprised to see high pressure near the UK extending towards the ne later on or a ridge building in from the ne. We might have to rely on faux cold to keep things cold but if theres snow on the ground it should at least feel festive.
Anyway we'll need a few runs to see how this develops but a chance at least that any transition to milder conditions maybe a long drawn out process.
Quote selectie