Re : Oorzaak volgens NOAA; ongewoon patroon Noord Amerika
Bericht van: RemcoF (Amstelveen) , 16-12-2010 21:54This morning I talked about a hurdle needing to be overcome to lock the cold in and thats still the case here. The hurdle is the low at 144hrs to the sw, this goes east then those heights to the ne are likely to extend sw'wards and cut the Atlantic off.
We should bear in mind that that alot rests on the upstream pattern and this was highlighted as being a problem regarding the unusual pattern and that the operational runs aswell as the ensembles are likely to be all over the place.
Here again is the extract from NOAA :
THE MODELS SHOW A HIGHLY UNUSUAL LONGWAVE PATTERN PREVAILING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IN THE FORTHCOMING MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A TRANSIENT REX-BLOCK ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA DAYS 3-4 WHICH REMAINS
SURROUNDED BY A MORE PERPETUAL HIGH-AMPLITUDE OMEGA-BLOCK. MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ALREADY SHOW WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE SOLUTION SPREAD ENTERING DAY 3...WHICH ONLY GROWS FURTHER WITH TIME.
THUS...GIVEN THE BLOCKING REGIME AND THE UNUSUALLY LARGE INFLUENCES FROM THE HIGHER LATITUDES WHERE DATA AVAILABILITY IS LESS...CONFIDENCE IN THE PARTICULAR DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...INCLUDING SPECIFIC DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE... FALLS BELOW AVERAGE MUCH FASTER
THAN NORMAL.
Dat is even heel andere koek dan een hardnekkig sneeuwdek in je model
Een geslaagde chase is pas compleet als je hem deelt
:D:D:D:D
