Ik vond nog een aardige visie op de huidige situatie mbt de verschillende uitkomsten van de diverse modellen.
To enter the hopecasting versus forecasting debate. Forecasting even at the amateur level involves past experience aswell as going for the highest probability forecast, sometimes this involves going for the cold option and sometimes not.
People on here are not paid to go into every single eventuality and don't have to give both sides of the cold/mild possibilities. We all have our favourite models, mine happens to be the ECM so I'm rather surprised at its recent poor performance as generally it is the best global model.
I have read that it has undergone some changes recently and this maybe why its been rather inconsistent and they might need some time to iron out some of the issues.
In terms of the current output my reasoning behind the bin it statement regarding the GFS 06hrs run is for a variety of reasons, firstly on past experience of the set up the ECM/UKMO are more likely to verify especially as the GFS does have a bias in overblowing shortwaves and is generally the more progressive model.
Often in the past its been the UKMO which has called time on cold synoptics, we've seen many easterlies implode even when many of the models have gone for them apart that is from the UKMO. Generally if I see the ECM/UKMO with the same trend it normally verifies and I've often said I'd rather the ECM/UKMO versus the GFS than the ECM/GFS against the UKMO so I think I'm being consistent with my thoughts today.
For the GFS to be right it has to be right as early as 72hrs and the ECM and UKMO both have to be wrong at that timeframe, what are the chances of this?
The ECM for all its recent problems hardly ever maintains a wrong trend within 96hrs, the GFS has been known to do this on quite a few occasions and recently it blew up low pressure in the Channel which as we saw was totally wrong and this was within 72hrs.
Sometimes people fall into a trap of thinking because a model has done well recently that its now infallible, and that to go against it is to cherry pick a solution just because that happens to be the colder one. I've often derided many of the outlandish GFS cold scenarios so feel perfectly able to deride its milder solution now.
If you look at the latest UKMO further update that follows the ECM/UKMO and the ECM ensembles not the GFS, so if its good enough for the UKMO then it's certainly good enough for the posters in here who have called into question the GFS solutions.
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/67154-model-discussion-thread-wednesdays-output/page__st__544
To enter the hopecasting versus forecasting debate. Forecasting even at the amateur level involves past experience aswell as going for the highest probability forecast, sometimes this involves going for the cold option and sometimes not.
People on here are not paid to go into every single eventuality and don't have to give both sides of the cold/mild possibilities. We all have our favourite models, mine happens to be the ECM so I'm rather surprised at its recent poor performance as generally it is the best global model.
I have read that it has undergone some changes recently and this maybe why its been rather inconsistent and they might need some time to iron out some of the issues.
In terms of the current output my reasoning behind the bin it statement regarding the GFS 06hrs run is for a variety of reasons, firstly on past experience of the set up the ECM/UKMO are more likely to verify especially as the GFS does have a bias in overblowing shortwaves and is generally the more progressive model.
Often in the past its been the UKMO which has called time on cold synoptics, we've seen many easterlies implode even when many of the models have gone for them apart that is from the UKMO. Generally if I see the ECM/UKMO with the same trend it normally verifies and I've often said I'd rather the ECM/UKMO versus the GFS than the ECM/GFS against the UKMO so I think I'm being consistent with my thoughts today.
For the GFS to be right it has to be right as early as 72hrs and the ECM and UKMO both have to be wrong at that timeframe, what are the chances of this?
The ECM for all its recent problems hardly ever maintains a wrong trend within 96hrs, the GFS has been known to do this on quite a few occasions and recently it blew up low pressure in the Channel which as we saw was totally wrong and this was within 72hrs.
Sometimes people fall into a trap of thinking because a model has done well recently that its now infallible, and that to go against it is to cherry pick a solution just because that happens to be the colder one. I've often derided many of the outlandish GFS cold scenarios so feel perfectly able to deride its milder solution now.
If you look at the latest UKMO further update that follows the ECM/UKMO and the ECM ensembles not the GFS, so if its good enough for the UKMO then it's certainly good enough for the posters in here who have called into question the GFS solutions.
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/67154-model-discussion-thread-wednesdays-output/page__st__544
„Et nul ne se connait tant qu'il n'a pas souffert, „C'est une dure loi, mais une loi suprème, „Vieille comme le monde et la fatalité, „Qu'l nous faut du malheur regevoir le baptéme, ~Et qu'a ce triste prix tout doit étre acheté. „Les moissons pour murir out besoin de rosée, „Pour vivre et pour sentir l'homme a besoin de pleura, „La joie a pour symbole une plante brisée, „Humide encore de pluie et couverte de fleurs."
