Op UK forum (ook) andere geluiden..
Morning all-
I believe the ECM & to a certain extent the GFS is wrong for all the reasons highlighted in my posts over the last few days- ( The weakened jet, southerly track,Easterly anomaly driving west around the pole etc etc)
For that reason my 'forecast track & disruption favours this output from the Nogaps 06z- NB: Im using this model because it comes closest to what I THINK will actually happen, it is also supported by the GEM & Potentially the 00z UKMO- although sadly we dont get past 144 on the UKMO-
Also the ECM control...
http://91.121.84.31/modeles/nogaps/run/nogapsnh-0-144.png?04-11
to be fair though the UKMO is ALMOST identical
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UN144-21.GIF?04-06
That the first euro on board ISH
More trough disruption, a jet whose inflection point is further South & west of the UK.......
Een ander
Yes I think I'd agree especially as the UKMO goes for a similar scenario, going on the background signals of the last few winters then the models have generally taken the jet too far north.
As we enter the more reliable timeframe I would be surprised if the ECM doesn't alter its view of the exit point of the jet coming out of the USA and also disrupt that trough.
Looking at the output overall you would expect to see further disruption of that trough as it nears the UK and even if it grinds to a halt over the UK it could just implode as the energy is drained away from it.
Morning all-
I believe the ECM & to a certain extent the GFS is wrong for all the reasons highlighted in my posts over the last few days- ( The weakened jet, southerly track,Easterly anomaly driving west around the pole etc etc)
For that reason my 'forecast track & disruption favours this output from the Nogaps 06z- NB: Im using this model because it comes closest to what I THINK will actually happen, it is also supported by the GEM & Potentially the 00z UKMO- although sadly we dont get past 144 on the UKMO-
Also the ECM control...
http://91.121.84.31/modeles/nogaps/run/nogapsnh-0-144.png?04-11
to be fair though the UKMO is ALMOST identical
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UN144-21.GIF?04-06
That the first euro on board ISH
More trough disruption, a jet whose inflection point is further South & west of the UK.......
Een ander
Yes I think I'd agree especially as the UKMO goes for a similar scenario, going on the background signals of the last few winters then the models have generally taken the jet too far north.
As we enter the more reliable timeframe I would be surprised if the ECM doesn't alter its view of the exit point of the jet coming out of the USA and also disrupt that trough.
Looking at the output overall you would expect to see further disruption of that trough as it nears the UK and even if it grinds to a halt over the UK it could just implode as the energy is drained away from it.
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 04-01-2011 12:14
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