Ik vond nog een aardige samenvatting van de situatie.
For the cold and snow lovers out there perhaps wondering when there might be a return to the freezer, well at the moment it's hard to make a convincing case for this although a return to somewhat colder conditions seems likely.
In terms of expectations after the recent December these will be very hard to meet so I think we need to view the expected pattern from just a normal winter perspective.
We have a period of zonal weather coming up so lots of wind and rain and generally on the mild side upto around the 16th. After this time there is likely to be a change as we see a little more amplification develop in the upstream flow, interestingly we begin to see a little more energy going into the southern arm of the jet.
Unfortunately that troughing over the eastern USA refuses to do what cold lovers would want and amplify sufficiently and dig far enough south to carve a strong ridge ahead of it. So for the timebeing little chance of decent pressure rises over Greenland, this is also negated by the westwards motion of the PV.
If you follow the main models output you will see the PV heading west towards Canada, at the same time positive anomalies transfer into Russia.
I'm sure the ECM might be seen tonight as a chance of the Holy Grail with its FI output with a stronger ridge edging westwards from Russia, we did see the same thing last night which was dropped on the mornings output.
Because of this it's hard to have too much faith in its output at that timeframe although the Russian high will likely verify and is shown across all the output but I have my doubts about it ridging that far west.
If you're looking for a way for that ridge to provide some cold redemption then its likely to play out similar to my low probability outcome of last night.
For the Russian high to play a more important role given the overall set up you would need to see that mid Atlantic ridge amplifying further,also the PV further west, troughing near the UK would need to weaken and disrupt as the Russian ridge backs west over the top, the mid Atlantic ridge would then act as a stopper in the Atlantic giving time for that to occur.
Given that we are expecting a mid Atlantic ridge to form then thats a possible way it could help in this situation. However I'm not convinced about this Russian high getting that far west.
So factors that are likely to verify:
Mid Atlantic ridge
PV moving west towards Canada
A slightly more amplified upstream pattern
Some energy transferring to the southern arm of the jet
Russian high
In terms of the weather after this milder period a change to colder conditions seems likely, collectively those factors I listed could add up to more interest but I feel at the moment the models are juggling with these and not really deciding on a clear way forward.
For the cold and snow lovers out there perhaps wondering when there might be a return to the freezer, well at the moment it's hard to make a convincing case for this although a return to somewhat colder conditions seems likely.
In terms of expectations after the recent December these will be very hard to meet so I think we need to view the expected pattern from just a normal winter perspective.
We have a period of zonal weather coming up so lots of wind and rain and generally on the mild side upto around the 16th. After this time there is likely to be a change as we see a little more amplification develop in the upstream flow, interestingly we begin to see a little more energy going into the southern arm of the jet.
Unfortunately that troughing over the eastern USA refuses to do what cold lovers would want and amplify sufficiently and dig far enough south to carve a strong ridge ahead of it. So for the timebeing little chance of decent pressure rises over Greenland, this is also negated by the westwards motion of the PV.
If you follow the main models output you will see the PV heading west towards Canada, at the same time positive anomalies transfer into Russia.
I'm sure the ECM might be seen tonight as a chance of the Holy Grail with its FI output with a stronger ridge edging westwards from Russia, we did see the same thing last night which was dropped on the mornings output.
Because of this it's hard to have too much faith in its output at that timeframe although the Russian high will likely verify and is shown across all the output but I have my doubts about it ridging that far west.
If you're looking for a way for that ridge to provide some cold redemption then its likely to play out similar to my low probability outcome of last night.
For the Russian high to play a more important role given the overall set up you would need to see that mid Atlantic ridge amplifying further,also the PV further west, troughing near the UK would need to weaken and disrupt as the Russian ridge backs west over the top, the mid Atlantic ridge would then act as a stopper in the Atlantic giving time for that to occur.
Given that we are expecting a mid Atlantic ridge to form then thats a possible way it could help in this situation. However I'm not convinced about this Russian high getting that far west.
So factors that are likely to verify:
Mid Atlantic ridge
PV moving west towards Canada
A slightly more amplified upstream pattern
Some energy transferring to the southern arm of the jet
Russian high
In terms of the weather after this milder period a change to colder conditions seems likely, collectively those factors I listed could add up to more interest but I feel at the moment the models are juggling with these and not really deciding on a clear way forward.
„Et nul ne se connait tant qu'il n'a pas souffert, „C'est une dure loi, mais une loi suprème, „Vieille comme le monde et la fatalité, „Qu'l nous faut du malheur regevoir le baptéme, ~Et qu'a ce triste prix tout doit étre acheté. „Les moissons pour murir out besoin de rosée, „Pour vivre et pour sentir l'homme a besoin de pleura, „La joie a pour symbole une plante brisée, „Humide encore de pluie et couverte de fleurs."
