De man interpreteert alles letterlijk en na de betrouwbare termijn is dat gewoon flauwekul. Wanneer je de laatste runs na die termijn wil duiden dan lijken er voor die termijn maar 2 dingen echt vast te staan: Het "gat" west van Groenland met een uitloper richting de UK en het "gaatje" boven NW Rusland dat langzaam wat oostwaarts opschuift. Dat er daartussen wat "bubbeltjes" ontstaan is logisch, maar voor de gehele atmosfeer heeft dat nauwelijks betekenis.
Enige zinvolle zin die ik kon ontdekken was: However, it looks like we’re going to have to wait for the next set of runs to see what develops or not.
Zeker 2 A4tjes die waarschijnlijk redelijk correct geduid, maar feitelijk virtuele onzin zijn wat mij betreft.
GFS at 144hrs is quite similar to UKMO at the same time span with naturally the same weather pattern too but by 168hrs an active Atlantic trough lies close to the west of Britain with heavy rain on its eastern flank edging slowly east. Further east and north things could be drier and somewhat colder in a brisk south or southeast wind. The following day maintains falling pressure over the UK with an intense Low four to five hundred miles west of Ireland at 945mbs. Strong south to southwest winds would drive troughs NE towards and over the UK with wind and rain in abundance with temperatures near normal.
By 216hrs the low has moved to a position between Scotland and Iceland with an active cold front sweeping east through the UK. Rain and very squally winds would rush east over the UK followed by brighter more showery and less windy conditions later. The following day continues a showery theme but a weak ridge would bring a damping down of the showers through the day ahead of the next spell of wind and rain brewing in the Atlantic. This duly arrives at 264hrs with another spell of gales and heavy squally rain sweeping east through all parts followed by colder and more showery conditions from the west later.
After 12hrs or so of squally, heavy and possibly thundery showers rising pressure from the south would see these lessen in frequency and intensity by 288hrs as another weak ridge crosses through. The ridge then collapses away east as winds back SW with a warm front bringing a period of rain and drizzle followed by mild and dank conditions with breezy SW winds and hill mist and drizzle on hills and coasts facing south and west.
The end of the run shows a couple of milder days before an active trough around 360hrs brings a spell of rain through followed by colder clearer weather later. The final day shows pressure having risen quickly over all parts with a high pressure belt developing over the UK stretching from the SW to the NE. The weather on this day would be dry and chilly after early frost melts away.
ECM at 144hrs shows high pressure between Iceland and Norway with an intense depression south of Greenland. The UK lies in a moderate southerly flow with a trough moving northwards over England with a band of cloud and rain. Following the rain things would warm up a little following a rather cold start to the day. The next day sees further fronts approaching the SW with the rain chiefly in the west with the east being drier and somewhat colder. By 192hrs pressure is low to the south and west of Britain with various troughs scattered over the nation. High pressure remains to the NE over Scandinavia. While the southwest sees the heaviest rain and the highest temperatures it is likely that areas in the north and east stay drier and become rather cold.
By 216hrs Low pressure dominates the areas from Greenland, through the Atlantic to Britain and south through France and the Med. The weather would be very unsettled and often wet with spells of heavy rain. Away from the far NE where it would be quite windy winds would be mostly light. It would also be rather cold as well with some snow possible on higher ground further north and east. The run ends with active low pressure’s stretching from southern England west through the Atlantic. The north would continue rather cold with rain, sleet or snow at times in a strong ESE flow. The south would likely be simply wet with variable winds and normal temperatures.
TRENDS The Atlantic continues to influence the UK weather tonight from our mid range models. There still is some high pressure development to the NE but it appears that the models now think the Atlantic will be too strong to restrict anything other than a continuation of normality with regard to temperatures for us here in the UK. ECM does show the effect of the high pressure to the NE allowing south-eastward moving depressions west of Britain to eventually deliver some rather cold conditions and on reflection it wouldn’t take too much shift in pressure patterns at this time to show something much more promising for widespread cold. However, it looks like we’re going to have to wait for the next set of runs to see what develops or not.
Mijn conclusie: zonde van zijn tijd.
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