Summary
Unsettled at first but change is on the way
After quite a wet and windy week for much of the UK last week, the weather is set for another change as we head into the middle half of February. The settled weather look like they are heading back to our shores with drier and colder conditions.
Monday 7 February 2011 to Sunday 13 February 2011
The wind and rain hangs on
Much of the week will bring spells of wet and windy weather across the UK, with western parts seeing the worse of the conditions. However, temperatures will remain near or just above normal for this time of the year. There will be some drier interludes at times, especially on Tuesday when most areas will see some good spells of sunshine. The weekend though heralds a change as high pressure tries to build in from the east. This will allow much cooler conditions to spread into the east with perhaps some wintry showers developing in the north.
Monday 14 February 2011 to Sunday 20 February 2011
Turning more settled in the east but cold
During the week, high pressure will continue to build across the UK keeping the Atlantic systems mainly at bay to the west of the country. However they will manage to spread into western parts from time to time which will give spells of wet and windy weather for some. Meanwhile, further east will be mostly dry except for some wintry showers moving in from the continent. Temperatures will become rather cold for this time of year with nightime frosts developing, however western parts will be less cold at times as the wind and rain spread in.
Monday 21 February 2011 to Sunday 6 March 2011
A mostly settled end to the month
Despite remaining strong over the south, the high pressure will loose its grip over the north on occasions allowing the return of some wet and windy conditions at times. Temperatures are set to remain cold throughout the south with frost and fog remaining a problem. Further north though will be much milder as the Atlantic air influences the region.
Next week
Will March have a spring in its step?
Monthly forecasting
The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209
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