Glacier Point heeft een nieuwe update gegeven.
Significantly, all major global models are programming a strong MJO wave to gain momentum in the western Pacific, and there's already a lot of cloudiness and thunderstorm activity there right now. This should help to increase the pressure on La Nina and send out a signal for anomalous mid latitude ridges as relative angular momentum edges upwards for the first half of the month and the GWO is nudged towards a phase 3-4 type evolution.
Basically a signal for the ridge to our east to remain in situ, joined with height rises over western Europe and the mean trough aligned to our west in the eastern Atlantic. That's a warm pattern, probably sustained for some time.
The significance of the tropical convection is that this MJO wave was in my book a weak affair with the next one in mid to late June the stronger. The fact that it is occuring relatively shortly after the last wave and of a similar forecast magnitude suggests that the atmosphere is trying to resurrect itself from the La Nina type base state that has been around since the late summer of 2010. This augers extremely well for a warm, settled spell of weather during June and into July.
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/58354-in-depth-technical-model-discussion/page__st__867
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