Volgens hem komt de trog uiteindelijk wat westelijker te liggen, zodat warme lucht ons makkelijker kan bereiken
Pretty comfortable with the pattern so far...
Angular momentum hasn't fallen back too far with this waning cycle of tropical waves although no sign yet of the renewed westerly wind burst which will send the summer into overdrive, although expected between 10th and 15th June. Ecm extended tropical forecast out to 14th June just starting to hint at it but this is a long way off.
With angular momentum roughly average, pattern looks to be a question of where the axis of the mean longwave trough will drop in the medium range. Models are trending to shift it west of most of the UK, close to Ireland. I suspect they will correct slightly further west as we reach high resolution phase which will promote a slackish flow with the warmer air being drawn up the eastern side of the trough - steadily backing westwards over time and ebbing and flowing in response to natural toing and froing of torques.
It's worth noting how high the ECM night time mininma are for De Bilt indicative of the air mass not far away so the axis of the trough is going to be crucial whether you're cool and damp or dry and realtively warm.
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69698-model-output-discussion/page__st__85
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