Arme Frank: level 2

...N Italy, Slovenia...

In the vicinity of the upper jet's left exit region, cyclogenesis is predicted over N Italy. Although the resulting surface low is rather weak, easterly winds at the eastern side of this low lead to strongly enhanced directional and speed shear. Given 0-3 km shear around 15 m/s and 0-6 km shear around 20 - 25 m/s in place with some hundred J/kg nearly uncapped CAPE, well-organised convective systems may develop. SRH3 in order of 200 - 400 m²/s² is favourable for supercells which may produce large hail, severe wind gusts and also an isolated tornado. The QPF signals in GFS indicate that excessive convective rainfall is also expected over a broad region. A level 2 was issued for the area where the potential for widespread severe / isolated extremely severe events is highest. The surrounding area is likely to get isolated severe weather. Peak activity should be in the afternoon / evening hours when the left exit is directly over the region of interest.

Further upstream towards the Balearic Islands, the airmass is strongly capped and the number of severe events is probably below the level 1 threshold. Nevertheless, an isolated hail / wind gust event is not ruled out.