... France, Benelux, Germany, Switzerland...
A quite moist boundary layer is expected across the sligth risk area, with surface dewpoints generally in the 16-20 C range at 12Z. In response to solar heating... on the order of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE should be able to form over southern France as predicted by NMM22km/12Z. Rising motions ahead of the trough are expected to help scattered storms to initiate across the slight risk area. Deep-layer (0 - 6 km) shear is expected to be around 15 to 25 m/s with the strongest shear to the south. These values should be adequate to help storms organise into strong multicells and a few supercells, the latter being most likely in the southern 2/3rds of the risk area. The storms will likely be capable of producing large hail and strong to severe winds. Additionally - although low-level shear does not look particularly favourable - one or two tornadoes cannot be ruled out. The storms will gradually cluster. It is well possible that an MCS forms over the Benelux during the afternoon and one or two over France or Switzerland more likely during the evening hours, that move eastnortheastward into Germany producing strong and severe winds.
Ben het vaak met ze eens, maar ik zie er nu geen reden voor... denk dat ze de plank misslaan ditmaal... ja ik hoop het wel natuurlijk, ik ho ook wel van een MCSje
maar ik denk dat al het echte werk niet voor ons bestemd is...
Grtz
Arjen
A quite moist boundary layer is expected across the sligth risk area, with surface dewpoints generally in the 16-20 C range at 12Z. In response to solar heating... on the order of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE should be able to form over southern France as predicted by NMM22km/12Z. Rising motions ahead of the trough are expected to help scattered storms to initiate across the slight risk area. Deep-layer (0 - 6 km) shear is expected to be around 15 to 25 m/s with the strongest shear to the south. These values should be adequate to help storms organise into strong multicells and a few supercells, the latter being most likely in the southern 2/3rds of the risk area. The storms will likely be capable of producing large hail and strong to severe winds. Additionally - although low-level shear does not look particularly favourable - one or two tornadoes cannot be ruled out. The storms will gradually cluster. It is well possible that an MCS forms over the Benelux during the afternoon and one or two over France or Switzerland more likely during the evening hours, that move eastnortheastward into Germany producing strong and severe winds.
Ben het vaak met ze eens, maar ik zie er nu geen reden voor... denk dat ze de plank misslaan ditmaal... ja ik hoop het wel natuurlijk, ik ho ook wel van een MCSje
maar ik denk dat al het echte werk niet voor ons bestemd is...Grtz
Arjen