net upgrade van het NHC. Ligt vrijwel stil boven Golf van Mexico, en kan dus de komende dagen groeien boven het warme water als morgen ook de shear afneemt. Grote hoeveelheden regen (lokaal 20 inch = 500mm) in zuiden VS vanwege lage treksnelheid.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
OBSERVATIONS FROM OIL RIGS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. LEE IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2
MPH...4 KM/H. A CONTINUED SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH ARE BEING REPORTED ON OIL
RIGS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER AT ELEVATIONS OF A FEW HUNDRED
FEET ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325
KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM NEARBY
OIL RIGS AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1003
MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...MAKING
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT.
Forecast:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A SMALL
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AND LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS HAS ALLOWED
THE WIND SHEAR TO DECREASE AND ALSO TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. DISSIPATION OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT
DRY AIR INFLUENCE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOTION...LESSENING SHEAR...AND VERY WARM SSTS NEAR 30C THE
CYCLONE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
NHC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL...ICON...WITH THE STATISTICAL MODELS
ABOVE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BELOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
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