Systeem telt weer als TD nadat een vliegtuigje gesloten circulatie heeft gevonden waarschijnlijk.
Edit:
A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA
HAS FOUND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED...HAS A SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER TO BE CONSIDERED
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT. ONLY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 36-48 HOURS.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS
OPHELIA MOVES THROUGH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AT SUBTROPICAL
LATITUDES. THIS...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SHOULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO EVENTUALLY BECOME A
HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL DSHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 285/4. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 72 HOURS OR SO...THE FLOW ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A LARGE TROUGH NEARING THE U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD
TURN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 17.6N 60.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 18.0N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 18.7N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 19.5N 61.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 21.0N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 25.0N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 29.5N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 37.5N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
Edit:
A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA
HAS FOUND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED...HAS A SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER TO BE CONSIDERED
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT. ONLY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 36-48 HOURS.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS
OPHELIA MOVES THROUGH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AT SUBTROPICAL
LATITUDES. THIS...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SHOULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO EVENTUALLY BECOME A
HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL DSHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 285/4. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 72 HOURS OR SO...THE FLOW ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A LARGE TROUGH NEARING THE U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD
TURN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 17.6N 60.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 18.0N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 18.7N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 19.5N 61.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 21.0N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 25.0N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 29.5N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 37.5N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 27-09-2011 22:37
