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OPHELIA HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A CIRCULAR
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE EYE WAS ALREADY CLEARLY OBSERVED ON
EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGES. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 5.0 ON
THE DVORAK SCALE THIS MORNING. SINCE THEN...THE EYE HAS BECOME EVEN
MORE DISTINCT...AND THE ADT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE
BEEN AVERAGING NEAR 5.5 WITH RAW NUMBERS RECENTLY REACHING 6.0. ON
THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 100
KNOTS...MAKING OPHELIA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON A SAFFIR
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE...THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE
SEASON.
THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT OPHELIA HAS ALREADY REACHED ITS
PEAK INTENSITY...AND ONLY SMALL INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO INCREASING SHEAR AND ENCOUNTER COLD WATERS
RESULTING IN WEAKENING. OPHELIA SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND.
OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10
KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL
HIGH AND A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE OPHELIA TO MOVE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN RECURVE WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED...AS THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE PASSES EAST OF BERMUDA.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NHC FORECAST SINCE IT IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 48 HOURS.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 23.5N 62.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 25.2N 63.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 28.5N 63.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 32.1N 62.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 37.0N 60.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 46.0N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/1200Z 52.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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