Door te hoge shear aan de zuidwestkant (volgens mij) zou eerder van snelle intensivering geen sprake kunnen zijn. De eerste prognose van de NOAA liet ook geen enkele kans zien op het ontstaan van hurricane. Vanmiddag nog was de verwachting dat de hurricane-status pas vlak voor Yucatan bereikt zou worden.
Jeff Masters schreef op Wunderground eerder nog:
"The intensity forecast for Rina has a high amount of uncertainty. Rina should be able to slowly intensify through Tuesday, becoming a strong tropical storm. On Wednesday, Rina will be approaching a dry airmass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. Since Rina is a small storm, these hostile conditions could cause the storm to dissipate on Wednesday as it nears landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula..."
Jeff Masters schreef op Wunderground eerder nog:
"The intensity forecast for Rina has a high amount of uncertainty. Rina should be able to slowly intensify through Tuesday, becoming a strong tropical storm. On Wednesday, Rina will be approaching a dry airmass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. Since Rina is a small storm, these hostile conditions could cause the storm to dissipate on Wednesday as it nears landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula..."
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 24-10-2011 21:53
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