Ik denk dat MC zich baseert op het EC model voor de middellange termijn (32 dagen). De Engelstalige bijdrage is van Matthew Hugo, meteoroloog bij een commercieel Engels weerbedrijf (vraag me trouwens af of Weerplaza/weeronline ook dit model gebruiken). Hij benadrukt dat nu voor de 2e achtereenvolgende week deze ontwikkeling in dit model zit. Eerder dit jaar (uiteraard geen garanties) had dit model verandering weken van te voren al in de smiezen. We wachten af.
Elders had ik deze bijdrage geplaatst
http://forum.vwkweb.nl/chatbox/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=12102&start=690
Well I hold good news, well depending on your terminology of good news that is. I've looked at the latest EC 32 day info this morning and the signal for a pattern change later in November and into early December is still there and in a big way!
Up to the middle of month high pressure persists to the E and this maintains relatively mild conditions, driest in the E, wettest in the W etc. However, beyond mid-month what the model is signalling is for high pressure to migrate and there is then the development of a +ve pressure anom to the N or NW of the UK during the final week of November and into early December, as low pressure becomes dominant to the S. In essence the final week of the 32 day forecast is signalling a pattern similar to that of last year with E or NE'lies across the UK and there is a dramatic drop in temperature forecast during the final quarter of the forecast period.
Clearly I put emphasis on this model signalling a potential pattern change this time last week and whilst any longer term model is open to change, I do have quite a decent liking to this model as it has picked up trends at times throughout this year weeks in advance. Clearly this post will be fascinating to read and come back to in around 3 weeks time to see what is actually on the horizon for the end of November, but IF this model is picking up this pattern change correctly then it would seem that another dramatic turn-around to something far more wintry is likely towards the end of November onwards...
Time will tell!...
Matt.
Matthew Hugo BSc(Hons), FRMetS
Meteorologist
Weather Commerce Ltd
On Twitter @MattHugo81
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