uir de Estofex forecast:
... parts of UK ...
As the deep cyclone near Iceland moves further NE across the Norwegian sea, an associated strong cold front will be pushed across the British Isles. This setup is characterized by very strong jet streak, providing impressive vertical wind shear at all levels. Despite very limited instability signals on numerical models, strongly forced convection is becoming likely along the trailing cold front. The front will cross the level 1 area during the afternoon and early evening hours. As said, very strong shear will be in place, with above 30 m/s of deep layer shear and 20-25 m/s of LL shear, combined with strong 300-500 m^2/s^2 SR helicity.
Expect a likelihood of a well-organized convective line with embedded mesocyclones along the cold front itself. Those storms should support severe wind gusts and possibly tornadoes as well, given the robust shear in place. A polar maritime airmass will overspread the area further north and support widespread low-topped convection.
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