... Late evening and night hours British Isles to BENELUX, NW Germany and W Denmark...
With the arrival of another major baroclinic system, model fields suggest significant dry intrusion behind the jet-streak, possibly spreading partly over the low level warm sector of the surface low. As an interesting note, dry air is expected to penetrate below 700 hPa as suggested by GFS cross sections! A strongly forced convective line seems like a possibility, especially when taking into the account very strong dynamics of the system, even though instability will likely be only marginal at best. 850 hPa flow over 40 m/s ensures very strong wind shear at lower levels and points to the possibility of severe wind gusts and tornadoes within such line. Where exactly will such a line pass is a matter of question, on which models do not agree. Therefore a broad Level 1 is introduced to cover range of possibilities. An update with even an upgrade to Level 2 might follow during the day if situation becomes more certain.
Quote selectie