Bedankt Ernest. Ik vond nog deze bijdrage. Betreft dat volgens het Amerikaanse KNMI, er zeer veel onzekerheid nog is, zelfs aan het begin van de periode.
Looking at the upstream pattern hard to judge how the uncertainty there will play out over here in Europe, remember this is talking about the CONUS, the 48 States south of the Canadian border, if theres uncertainty with amplification which impacts on the jet then perhaps a knock on effect in that high speed jet which pummels its way east and harpoons the ridge before it has a chance to set up further north.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS SHOW UNUSUALLY HIGH SPREAD EARLY IN THE PERIOD RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR NEARLY ALL SYSTEM THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html
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