Opmerkelijke update van MetOffice. Voor het eerst dit seizoen dat ik lees dat ze het hebben over de kans op aanzienlijk kouder weer en van een grote onzekerheid.
Vertaling in hoofdlijnen. Voorlopig normale temperaturen. Laatste dagen van januari is er veel onzekerheid, het neigt iets meer naar een doorzetting van temperaturen rond normaal. Maar er
is ook een significante kans op aanzienlijk kouder weer.
Ook de vooruitzichten voor februari zijn zeer onzeker. Twee scenario's, ongeveer even waarschijnlijk. Ene scenario is W/ZW wind en de ander is een NO/O scenario met veel kouder weer. Zoals bijv. EC32 ook aangaf.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html
UK Outlook for Sunday 22 Jan 2012 to Tuesday 31 Jan 2012:
Sunday is likely to be chilly and windy, with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers. Showers should be most frequent in the north, with snow on hills, whilst the south should remain driest. Similar conditions will likely persist through the following days, with further showers and some more persistent rain likely to affect many areas. Temperatures will probably be near average, occasionally mild, but with overnight frosts possible in any quieter interludes. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the weather during the last few days of January. The slightly more probable scenario at present is that conditions will remain similar to those described above. However there is also a significant risk of much colder weather becoming established right across the UK, with snow in places and widespread overnight frosts.
UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 15 Feb 2012:
The forecast for the first half of February is very uncertain. As with the day 6 to 15 forecast, there appear to be two main scenarios, each equally probable, but which are very different. It is also fairly likely that the prevailing weather type at the end of January will continue into February. The first scenario consists of a changeable westerly or southwesterly type, with rain at times (amounts greatest in the west), and with temperatures noticeably above average for early February, with only occasional frosts. The alternative scenario is that very much colder weather, with winds from an easterly or northeasterly quarter, will prevail well into February, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that was most vulnerable to snowfall.
Updated: 1436 on Tue 17 Jan 2012
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